Hooker, offense will continue to score big
Secondary remains a huge concern
By Jimmy Hyams
Josh Heupel is the first coach at Tennessee in more than a decade that has a chance to restore consistent relevance to a storied program.
The last three certainly couldn’t. And we didn’t get to find out about Lane Kiffin.
Relevance is defined as winning at least eight games a year, finishing in the top three of the SEC East and landing in the top 25 of the final AP poll.
Those weren’t the goals in the 1990s, but times have changed.
As so has Tennessee’s offense.
When you run three plays in a minute, a lot of things can happen. Last year, most of them were good. That’s how you score 511 points in a season. That’s how you lead the nation in first-quarter scoring. That’s how you arouse a fan base that was on the verge of apathy.
As Tennessee (7-6 last year) heads into its season opener against Ball State (6-7 last year) Thursday (SEC Network, 7 pm) here are a few predictions.
Hooker stays productive but throws more picks
Hendon Hooker will have another great season, but he will throw more interceptions. It’s hard to imagine another 31-touchdown-3-pick ratio. Even Peyton Manning’s interceptions went up during his career. He threw only four as a sophomore, but as he took more chances, he had 12 picks as a junior and 11 as a senior to go with 56 touchdown passes his final two seasons.
Look for Hooker to throw 40 scoring passes, 8 interceptions, account for 48 touchdowns (he had 36 last year) and garner a school-record 3,800 total yards (Manning has the mark at 3,789).
Vols catches will be more evenly distributed
Tennessee had only two receivers that caught over 20 passes during the 2021 regular season: Cedric Tillman, Velus Jones Jr.
That number will grow to five this year.
Last year, UT narrowed the rotation to primarily three wideouts after Game 4. That won’t be the case this year as UT should strike a greater balance.
Tillman will flirt with 70 catches. Bru McCoy and Jalin Hyatt should have over 40. Walker Merrill, Jimmy Calloway, Ramel Keyton and Squirrel White are threats to surpass the 20-catch mark.
Tight end Jacob Warren will also exceed 20 catches. His goal is to double last year’s total of 18.
Small will be UT’s first 1000-yard back in 7 years
Jabari Small will be UT’s first back to rush for over 1,000 yards since Jalen Hurd (1,288) in 2015.
Small gained almost 800 yards last year despite missing two games and have fewer than five carries in two others. Injuries kept him out of the lineup and didn’t allow him to finish the Music City Bowl.
By adding 15 pounds, Small figures to be more durable. If so, he should gain over 1,200 yards and rank among the SEC’s top three rushers.
Jaylen Wright (409 yards last year) will gain over 600.
True freshman Dylan Sampson figures to break some long runs and will total about 400 yards.
Justin Williams-Thomas, another true freshman, will exceed 200 yards.
Last year, Tennessee had three backs with over 400 yards.
Vols will break scoring record – again
Tennessee’s offense will set another scoring record.
The Vols averaged 39.3 points per game last year and totaled 511 points.
So why do I think UT will exceed 511 points?
Last year, the Vols were held to 14 by Florida, 17 by Georgia and 38 by Bowling Green. UT will score more than that this year against Florida, Georgia and a team equivalent to Bowling Green in Ball State.
UT will score at least 40 points in seven games and fewer than 30 in only three games (Alabama, Georgia, LSU).
UT should fare better in second quarters
Tennessee usually scripts about the first 15 plays of a game.
It paid off in 2021. UT led the nation in first-quarter scoring with 190 points, while holding opponents to 51 points. UT scored in double digits in the first quarter in all but three games: Florida, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt.
The second quarter was a different story as UT was outscored 143-109.
Pitt got the better of the Vols in Period 2 by 27-10. Georgia had a 17-0 advantage, Alabama 14-0 and Ole Miss 14-3. The Vols lost the Music City Bowl in large part because Purdue had a 16-0 edge in the second 15 minutes. Even Bowling Green outscored UT in the second quarter, 6-0.
Part of that was defenses adjusting to UT’s uptempo offense. Part of it was lack of focus. Part of it might have been play calling or UT not adjusting to the opponent’s adjustments.
Look for UT to score slightly fewer points in the first quarter this season, but not get outscored in the second quarter.
Tennessee outscored foes 299-194 in the first half last season. That 105 difference will be slightly better this season.
Third-down defense will (must) improve
Tennessee’s third-down defense ranked among the worst in the SEC and the nation last year as opponents converted 42% of the time.
The Vols were actually better in third-and-short situations than third-and-6 or more.
Part of that was a weak secondary. Part of it was lack of a pass rush. Part of it was the inability to keep scrambling quarterbacks in the pocket.
UT will have a much better pass rush this season, thus reducing the third-down conversions to 36%.
Vols should increase sack total
Byron Young is primed for a breakout season.
The juco transfer had 5.5 sacks last year. He will more than double that this year with 12.
Tyler Baron had four sacks and should up that total to six to eight.
Roman Harrison had one lone sack last year. Look for him to get at least four, although we haven’t heard that much from him during August camp.
That trio will record at least 22 sacks. And UT will up its team total from 34 to 40.
UT secondary will struggle again
Tennessee’s secondary was last in the SEC a year ago, allowing 273.2 pass yards per game.
Opponents completed 61.4% of their passes for 23 touchdowns against 13 interceptions.
UT’s secondary is a team weakness. The Vols lost cornerback Alontae Taylor and star Theo Jackson, and I don’t see their replacements picking up the slack.
UT will not surrender 273 pass yards per game in part because UT’s run defense won’t be as good and decent opponents (like Pitt and Florida) will try to grind it out and keep UT’s offense off the field.
But having said that, UT will still allow over 250 passing yards per game while yielding over 60% completion rate and over 20 touchdowns.
BONUS PREDICTION: Squirrel White will have four catches of over 30 yards this season and Dylan Sampson will break four runs of over 20 yards.
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