Week 4 SEC football score predictions, analysis; Vols get back in win column over UK

ATHENS, GA – OCTOBER 10, 2020 – Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano #2 of the Tennessee Volunteers during the game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Tennessee Volunteers at Sanford Stadium in Athens, GA. Photo By Andrew Ferguson/Tennessee Athletics

By Vince Ferrara / @VinceSports

Each week, I’ll share my predictions and info on SEC football games.

Below is broadcast info and analysis for Week 4 in the SEC.

These are straight-up winners only. The point spread is just as a barometer for how big of a favorite or underdog each team is.

2019 SEC Game Prediction Record: 103-20 (84%)
2020 SEC Week 3 Game Prediction Record: 5-2 (71%)
2020 SEC Season Prediction Record: 17-4 (81%)


WEEK 4 – SEC FOOTBALL

SATURDAY, October 17
#14 Auburn (2-1, 2-1 SEC) at South Carolina (1-2, 1-2 SEC)
Noon ET • ESPN
Columbia, S.C. • Williams-Brice Stadium (80,250)
Series: AU leads, 10-1-1
Last: AU, 42-35 (2014 in Auburn)
Sirius: 135/133 • XM: 192/191
Point Spread: Auburn -3
Vince’s View: South Carolina has been competitive in losses to ranked teams, Florida and Tennessee then ran away from Vandy last week. Auburn was blown out in its loss and didn’t play well in their wins. Auburn tends to play sleepy in early kickoffs. Auburn’s troubles on the line of scrimmage are where South Carolina has played well. Another SEC upset.
Score Prediction: South Carolina 27 Auburn 24

Kentucky (1-2, 1-2 SEC) at #18 Tennessee (2-1, 2-1 SEC)
Noon ET • SEC Network
Knoxville, Tenn. • Neyland Stadium (102,455)
Series: UT leads, 81-25-9
Last: UT, 17-13 (2019 in Lexington)
Sirius:138 • XM: 382/190
Point Spread: Tennessee -6 ½
Vince’s View: Kentucky’s lack of a passing game doesn’t give them a chance to exploit Tennessee’s weakness through three weeks, it’s pass defense, especially in the slot. The Wildcats should get some yards, but UT’s defense does a nice job in the redzone and containing teams off turnovers and short fields. The Vols will be inconsistent, but again, overcome mistakes against UK they could not versus Georgia. Tennessee’s balance on offense will net the Vols enough points to get the home win.
Score Prediction: Tennessee 24 Kentucky 20

Ole Miss (1-2, 1-2 SEC) at Arkansas (1-2, 1-2 SEC)
3:30 p.m. ET • ESPN2
Fayetteville, Ark. • Reynolds Razorback Stadium (72,000)
Series: ARK leads, 36-28-1
Last: UM, 31-17 (2019 in Oxford)
Sirius: 133 • XM: 387/191
Point Spread: Ole Miss -1 ½
Vince’s View: I think this game will fall somewhere in the middle of shootout (Ole Miss) and low scoring (Arkansas.) The Razorbacks continue to show how competitive the team is this season. I think the Rebels defense actually makes a play (not many, just one) to seal the road victory.
Score Prediction: Ole Miss 35 Arkansas 31

#11 Texas A&M (2-1, 2-1 SEC) at Mississippi State (1-2, 1-2 SEC)
4 p.m. ET • SEC Network
Starkville, Miss. • Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field (61,337)
Series: MSU leads, 7-6
Last: TAMU, 49-30 (2019 in College Station)
Sirius: 83/138 • XM: 83/190
Point Spread: Texas A&M -5
Vince’s View: So, is the Leach train off the tracks already or this another vintage rise-up win for a Mike Leach coached team? When A&M commits to the run and has balance on offense, that offense can be pretty prolific. MSU has the 5th best rush defense in the FBS, so it won’t likely be easy. Kellen Mond is the key. If he plays well, typically, so do the Aggies.
Score Prediction: Texas A&M 31 Mississippi State 21

#3 Georgia (3-0, 3-0 SEC) at #2 Alabama (3-0, 3-0 SEC)
8 p.m. ET • CBS
Tuscaloosa, Ala. • Bryant-Denny Stadium (101,821)
Series: UA leads, 40-25-4
Last: UA, 35-28 (2018 in SEC Championship Game)
Sirius: 138/84 • XM: 190/84
Point Spread: Alabama -5
Vince’s View: Not having Nick Saban on the sideline (if that is in fact the case) will impact Alabama, however, not enough to lose this game. The elite Bama offense vs. the elite Georgia defense will be so much fun. That means the other units and special teamw will determine the winner. Georgia’s offense isn’t like Ole Miss, so Alabama’s defense will look much better and make enough plays to lead the Crimson Tide to a win, in what could be the first of maybe 2 or 3 meetings this season.
Score Prediction: Alabama 28 Georgia 23

Postponed
Vanderbilt (0-3, 0-3 SEC) at Missouri (1-2, 1-2 SEC)
LSU (1-2, 1-2 SEC) at #10 Florida (2-1, 2-1 SEC)

Here’s a release on the SEC schedule changes from the league.

SEC ANNOUNCES FOOTBALL SCHEDULE CHANGES

BIRMINGHAM, Alabama (October 16, 2020) – The SEC is adjusting its football schedule following the postponement of two games originally scheduled for October 17 due to positive tests and quarantine of individuals related to COVID-19.

On Monday it was announced that, due to positive tests and quarantine in the Vanderbilt football program, the Vanderbilt at Missouri game of Oct. 17 is rescheduled for Dec. 12.

On Wednesday it was announced that, due to positive tests and quarantine in the Florida football program, the LSU at Florida game of Oct. 17 is rescheduled for Dec. 12. In addition, due to an extended pause of team activities for the Florida football program at the advice of health officials, the Missouri at Florida game originally scheduled for Oct. 24 is rescheduled for Oct. 31 and will be televised on the SEC Network Alternate channel at 7:30 pm ET/6:30 pm CT.

Also, the Kentucky at Missouri game of Oct. 31 is rescheduled for Oct. 24 at 4 pm ET / 3 pm CT on the SEC Network and the Georgia at Kentucky game of Oct. 24 is rescheduled for Oct. 31 at Noon ET / 11 am CT on the SEC Network.

In addition, the South Carolina at LSU game of October 24 will change game times and is now scheduled for 7 pm ET / 6 pm CT on ESPN.

SEC Football Schedule Adjustments:

Kentucky at Missouri moves from Oct. 31 to Oct. 24 at 4 pm ET/3 pm CT on SEC Network
South Carolina at LSU remains on Oct. 24, changes game time to 7 pm ET/6 pm CT on ESPN
Georgia at Kentucky moves from Oct. 24 to Oct. 31 at Noon ET/11 am CT on SEC Network
Missouri at Florida moves from Oct. 24 to Oct. 31 at 7:30 ET/6:30 CT on SEC Network Alternate
Vanderbilt at Missouri moves from Oct. 17 to Dec. 12, time and network TBA
LSU at Florida moves from Oct. 17 to Dec. 12, time and network TBA

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