KNOXVILLE, Tenn. — Despite forecasts predicting Knoxville would be one of the nation’s hottest destinations for new residents, recent census data tells a different story.
Population growth in Knox County has steadily slowed over the past several years, according to demographic data and local experts, even as Knoxville continues to attract newcomers from across the country.
In late 2025, moving website moveBuddha projected Knoxville would have the highest inbound-to-outbound moving ratio in the nation, citing online search trends and interest in the region. The report pointed to Knoxville’s status as a mid-sized Southern city with a major university as factors making it attractive to potential movers.
However, experts say projections based on online searches do not necessarily reflect actual migration patterns.
Census data shows Knoxville’s net migration growth has declined every year since 2022, with significantly fewer people moving into the area compared to the post-pandemic boom years.
Maria McHale, government affairs director for East Tennessee Realtors, said much of the rapid growth seen earlier in the decade was fueled by unique circumstances during and immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic.
“A lot of it was driven by pandemic-era job changes, moving, things of that nature,” McHale said. “We’ve also noticed that the mortgage rates encouraged a lot of people to either refinance or move or buy a new home.”
She said those conditions created an unprecedented period of migration nationwide, but movement has since slowed across the country.
“What we’re seeing now is that that rate of movement for the entire country has slowed down,” McHale said.
Growth Rate Returns to More Typical Levels
According to McHale, Knox County’s population growth rate has leveled off at approximately 1.3%, a figure she says closely aligns with Tennessee’s statewide growth rate of roughly 1.1% to 1.2%.
The data suggests Knoxville is still growing, but not at the explosive rate many residents perceived during the height of the pandemic-era migration wave.
Demographers say the county is experiencing a healthier and more sustainable pace of growth than it did several years ago.
Most New Residents Are Not Retirees
The latest migration data also challenges a common perception about who is moving to East Tennessee.
Many residents have assumed retirees seeking Tennessee’s favorable tax climate make up the majority of newcomers. According to Tennessee State Data Center Director Tim Kuhn, the numbers show otherwise.
“Mobility among retirees is lower than for younger people,” Kuhn said.
Data from 2024 indicates the largest group moving to Knox County falls between the ages of 18 and 34.
Those younger residents include college students, young professionals and families relocating for employment opportunities.
“We’ve gotten a significant portion of movers that are sort of in that 18 to 25 age range, which some of those might be students,” McHale said. “Not all of them, though. Some of them are coming here with families. They’re staying here permanently.”
Jobs Remain a Key Draw
Economic opportunity continues to be a major factor attracting new residents to Knoxville.
McHale said many workforce-age adults relocating to the area are pursuing jobs in technology, research and innovation sectors that continue to expand throughout East Tennessee.
One recent transplant, Savannah Ball, said career opportunities played a major role in her decision to move from Johnson City to Knoxville.
“So that was one of the main factors that brought me here was the opportunity to start my business,” Ball said. “I love the fact that Knoxville is kind of a big town, but it’s got a lot of small-town energy to it.”
Ball, who owns the Fox Den edition of the community publication Stroll, said Knoxville’s ongoing development and business environment continue to attract newcomers.
“Opportunity seems to be greater here because there’s a lot of development happening as well,” Ball said. “I think it’s bringing a lot of people here.”
Housing and Demographic Challenges Remain
While Knoxville continues attracting younger workers, housing affordability remains a concern for community leaders and economic development experts.
McHale said limited housing inventory during the height of the migration surge contributed to affordability challenges that continue to affect residents today.
“We do still have a little bit of work to do on retaining our workforce-aged residents,” McHale said. “Part of that is the cost of housing.”
Demographic trends are also playing a role in slower population growth. Experts say many younger adults moving to the area are not bringing children and are having fewer children overall.
According to Kuhn, births in Knox County have increased somewhat but still remain below the number of deaths recorded each year. Fertility rates continue to decline, contributing to slower natural population growth.
Despite those challenges, experts say continued migration remains important to maintaining the local economy and workforce.
“We’re at a much healthier population growth rate and we need it to maintain our economy because our natural birth rate is so low,” McHale said.
While Knoxville continues to grow, the latest data suggests the city’s growth story is shifting. Instead of a flood of retirees and pandemic-driven movers, today’s newcomers are increasingly younger adults relocating for jobs, education and long-term economic opportunities.
Movers are trending younger(WVLT)
