It’s been a long two weeks for Tennessee football. In a game they should have won by at least two touchdowns, the Volunteers squandered a second half GOLDEN opportunity at South Carolina – succumbing to their second loss ahead of the Halloween open date.
A week off isn’t the worst thing for a team who played eight-straight games. But Kentucky (7-1, 5-1 SEC) had last week off too and will be well rested for the challenge that is Neyland Stadium at night for Dark Mode.
The Volunteers (6-2, 3-2 SEC) were tabbed No. 13 in the debut College Football Playoff rankings this week. Run the table in the month of November and the Vols are in the dance. Easier said than done and it all starts with the sixth-ranked team, Will Stein’s shockingly good Wildcats.
For Tennessee to keep its postseason hopes alive, it’s going to have to play one – if not the – best football game of the season. Here’s what you need to know about the Kentucky Wildcats ahead of the top 15 showdown.
Trends Matter
One team has no correlation on another from year’s past and that’s never been more true than now in the NIL and transfer portal era of college athletics. But there’s mansions in the desert for a reason and this is a series Tennessee has flat out owned.
Saturday marks the 122nd all-time meeting in the series between the two rivals, a series that stretches back to 1893. Tennessee has dominated the matchup with an all-time record of 86-26-9.
Furthermore, the Vols have been exceptional at home versus Kentucky, locking in an astounding record of 45-11-6. The Wildcats have won just one game in Knoxville during my 33 years on this planet and that was in the COVID-shortened campaign of 2020.
The Vols are a touchdown-plus favorite and straight-up demolished Alabama the last time they took to Shields-Watkins Field.
Neyland Stadium is to Kentucky what The Swamp was to Tennessee for many years. It’s a house of horrors.
Does that mean anything to this new-look Kentucky squad? It’s a team that plays with plenty of confidence, a microcosm of their head coach. Who knows. Even though I try to avoid trends, they matter. Tennessee owns this series and it’s a great matchup on paper this go-around as well.
Kentucky doesn’t beat itself
Kentucky doesn’t do anything at an elite level on either side of the football in regards to its base operation on offense and defense. More on that in a moment, but you don’t get to 7-1 on accident.
What’s been the key ingredients for UK? It’s discipline and an opportunistic nature.
We’ll start with the tougher one of the two and that’s discipline. Simply put, for a first-year head coach, Stein has gotten his team to buy in. They don’t make mistakes. They don’t get in their own way. They don’t get three touchdowns called back on the road due to penalties. Where have we seen that before…?
The ‘Cats have committed the fewest penalties in the conference at just 36 for the season. That’s an average of 41 yards per game. Tennessee has been penalized 61 times, for context. That’s winning football.
Kentucky also has the fewest turnovers in the league, committing just five. UK has lost four fumbles and quarterback Kenny Minchey has thrown just one interception and that was all the way back in Week 2. That’s winning football.
Finally, the ‘Cats have been super opportunistic on the defensive side of the ball with the second-most takeaways in the conference. Kentucky logs 18 takeaways on the year with 12 interceptions and six fumble recoveries. Safeties Jordan Castell and Ty Bryant each have four picks. That’s winning football.
For a team that doesn’t really do anything elite on offense and defense, that’s how you make up ground and win ballgames. Kentucky has been great at doing just that all season long.
Tennessee can shred Kentucky on both sides of the ball
I said it twice above and I’ll say it once more here. Kentucky doesn’t do anything elite on offense or defense. In fact – on paper – there’s nothing impressive about either unit, outside of dominating the turnover margin and not committing penalties.
UK is seventh in scoring and tenth in total offense. The SEC rank for passing in 13th and rushing is seventh. Kentucky ranks dead last in the conference on third downs and scores touchdowns in the redzone at just a 66 percent clip. None of that is inspiring.
It’s worse defensively where Kentucky ranks 10th in scoring and 11th in total defense. The ‘Cats are the third-worst team at defending the pass and the league’s worst third-down defense. The best thing Kentucky does on defense is defend the run, which ranks sixth in the SEC at 113 yards per game.
Tennessee’s defense is one of the best in the conference under first-year coordinator Jim Knowles. It leads the nation in sacks and ranks third in scoring for the conference. The Vols are the second-best rushing offense in the conference and the passing game has gotten better each week with quarterback George MacIntyre.
If Tennessee doesn’t stop itself, I’m not sure Kentucky can. This should be a good football game played in the best environment in all of college football. But I love the matchup for the Vols. On paper, the home team should cover.
